Archive for October, 2009

Recap

Wednesday, October 14th, 2009

World Retail
Retailers are flocking to India thanks to an economy that is still growing and a young population increasingly becoming aware of major brands.
Worldwide sales declines among luxury retailers will likely continue through 2010 and into 2011.

    JUST THE FACTS
    1. The apparel industry is a $191 billion industry.
    2. Back to school sales in the U.S. were expected to reach $38.3 billion, up .06% from 2008.
    3. A recent study found that in locations with a strong independent retail culture, 45% of every dollar spent at an independent bookstore remained in the local market.
    4. In the first half of 2009, the sale of luxury goods dropped 15%-20% over 2009.
    5. American families account for 40% of all borrowing in the U.S.
    6. Between 2003 and 2004 handbag sales grew by 26%.
    7. Handbag sales reached a peak in 2007 of $9 billion, up 100% over 2001. (more…)

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Pedestrian Thoughts

Friday, October 9th, 2009

Lego
Lego has opened its first concept store in Concord Mills, located north of Charlotte, NC. The 4,520 square foot store has been designed to create an interaction between children with on-site master builders. The store has room for birthday parties and classes.

    Versace
    Recently announced it was closing all thirty (30) of its stores in Japan.

New World
A new world is likely to emerge in which designers rebel against long lead times and where they take their collections directly to the consumer through their own boutiques, trunk shows, and over the web.

    Web Sales
    Web sales are projected to reach $156 billion in 2009, representing 6% of the total U.S. retail pie

The Web Fashion Consumer
Consumers have come to expect new merchandise more frequently, thanks to the web and fast fashion retailers such as H & M. Many cannot understand why they have to wait 6 months to see the fashions seen on the runways. Buyers at department stores generally base their orders on the past, while fashion editors gravitate to the most photogenic and future looking styles, leaving the consumer stuck in the middle. This results in one facet of the fashion industry looking forward and the other looking backwards. The consequence: a consumer on one hand is told what to buy but on the other, not where to buy it.

    In response, a new generation of fashion retailers is emerging on the web where news is freely given and fashion is sold. Net-a-porter with average sales of $820.00 per transaction and customers from 170 countries is one example of this new generation of merchants. The company has successfully merged its web retail site with a fashion news site catering to a new consumer who wants credible news over magazine advertisements and the most up to date fashion now.


Entertainment

Families spent 5.1% more on entertainment in 2008 than in 2009, something that has surprised many economists. As consumers tightened their pocket books and wallets one would expect entertainment to be one of the first categories to see significant decreases. But the 5.1% increase in spending equated to 16.5 billion more dollars spent in the category over 2007.

    Household debt
    The American family is trying to put money into savings and reduce their overall debt, but they are clearly not faring as well as one might expect in this recession. Household debt now amounts to about 125% of after tax income.

High Net Worth Individuals
Luxury retailers are faced with a significant decline in Americans with a high net worth defined as having $1,000,000 of assets available for investment. In 2008 the assets of these individuals dropped by as much as 22%. The result is a major decrease in sales at retailers such as Neiman Marcus where sales have decreased by over 20% in 2009 over 2008.

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Ask How Not Why

Friday, October 9th, 2009

One of the first lessons I remember from my undergraduate anthropology studies is “ask how not why/what”. Many market research studies examine who buys what fashion and what are the fashion trends, but it fails to understand the underlining why. By asking how, you implicitly are requesting a story and not a simple answer. “Why” can often put individuals on the defensive leading to short abrupt answers, and does not actually reveal the why or motivation behind a decision. Understanding why and how these trends occur enable us to build strong brand loyalty and partake in better predictive analysis.One of the first lessons I remember from my undergraduate anthropology studies is “ask how not why/what”. Many market research studies examine who buys what fashion and what are the fashion trends, but it fails to understand the underlining why. By asking how, you implicitly are requesting a story and not a simple answer. “Why” can often put individuals on the defensive leading to short abrupt answers, and does not actually reveal the why or motivation behind a decision. Understanding why and how these trends occur enable us to build strong brand loyalty and partake in better predictive analysis. (more…)

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COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE VACANCIES

Friday, October 9th, 2009

While the residential market may be showing some signs of recovery, vacancies in commercial properties continue to rise at an alarming rate. In short, non-enclosed shopping centers reached a 10.3% vacancy rate ending in the third quarter of 2009, and enclosed malls jumped to 8.6%.

And it certainly is not looking to get better for some time. As vacancies increased, average rents declined to $16.89 per square foot for non-enclosed centers and down to $39.18 for enclosed malls. Likewise, the Federal Reserve has reported 8,300 store closings including 1,500 large anchor stores in 2009 alone.

Nationwide, office vacancies and rents are faring worse. The vacancy rate, in office properties hit a five-year high at 16.5% in the third quarter of this year. The decline in occupancy came as 19.6 million square feet of office space was returned to landlords in the third quarter and 64.2 million for the year.

As bad as the current environment is for landlords, things will become bleaker as unemployment rises because office occupancy tends to trail employment by 18 to 24 months.

Coney Island

Friday, October 9th, 2009

In the past several years, much has been written about the proposed and controversial redevelopment plans for the boardwalk and adjacent amusement parks of Coney Island. While a great deal of the attention has been focused on the redevelopment plans of Thor Equities, the once popular Brooklyn seaside resort does not lack in alternative schemes suggested by everyone from theme park managers to the Bloomberg administration to the Municipal Art Society of New York.

    In short, opposition to Thor’s plan have been centered around the firm’s plan for as many as a 1,000 hotel rooms and 500,000 square feet of retail space including some big boxes. Alternative suggestions for Coney Island range from “three or four wind in your face rides” to an “eye-popping” attraction akin to the London Eye – not bad suggestions but clearly the product of observers that lack a real sense of the historic Coney Island, let alone what is requires to make the redevelopment an economic success. (more…)

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